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,According to Oil World executive director Thomas Mielke, (file pic) the recovery of palm oil production this season will not bring the palm oil levels back to what it was two years ago.

PETALING JAYA: The palm oil stocks globally are currently at multi-year lows and this has to do with the loss in growth momentum in the global production.

And even as it is expected to rebound by 3.2 million tonnes in September or October, the magnitude will not be as high as what it was in 2016 and 2017.

Figures from Oil World show that world palm oil stocks represent only 15.6% of annual usage currently.

According to Oil World executive director Thomas Mielke, the recovery of palm oil production this season will not bring the palm oil levels back to what it was two years ago.

“This is unprecedented. The growth is considerably less in what would have been expected under normal conditions.

“For the next five to 10 years, we expect the growth and palm oil productions to slow by 20% to 25%.

“Of course, supply and demand changes of palm and soya oils are key price determining factors for edible oils, but not the only ones, ” he told the Palm Oil and Major Oils plenary session during the second day of the Virtual Palm and Lauric Oils Price Outlook Conference (POC) yesterday.

Mielke added that prospects of only a moderate recovery in world palm oil supplies and consumption will limit the price decline for the remainder of 2021.

He said with the high level of prices currently, demand may be destructed and high volatility is likely to occur in the coming weeks or even months, from rising fund activities and money flows.

He also expected farmers to be stimulated by the current high prices and increase planting and investments for the next crops.

If weather conditions are normal, it can also be expected that the world production of 10 oilseeds will rebound next season, resulting in a production surplus due to significant expansion and planting.

Mielke forecast soybeans to increase by 25 million tonnes, sunflower seeds by around 6 million tonnes and slight recoveries in rapeseed and canola.

“This will create a larger supply of sunflower oil, which will be a major bearish factor and also influence palm oil prices.

“It may take longer to rebuild and replenish global stocks of vegetable oils and it is likely to take longer in a situation of slower than expected increase in palm oil production and we are currently in such a situation.

“The area increase (in oil palms) is going to slow down. Plantings have already slowed down significantly worldwide in the past couple of years and this is now being reflected in a slowing down in mature areas, which in my opinion, is going to continue in 2022 and the following years, ” he said.

As far as Malaysia is concerned, LMC International Ltd chairman Dr James Fry (pic below) said there may be a slow recovery in its palm oil outputs.

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